Trump Is a Disaster for the World. For Europe, He May Be an Opportunity
About a month into Trump's second presidency, the wheels are already coming off. After threats to annex Greenland and Canada, the new US administration has begun direct negotiations with Russia, sidelining both Ukraine and other European leaders. At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance stated that Europe's real enemy is not Russia or China, but internal liberal elites undermining democracy. This situation raises questions about the future of the Transatlantic alliance. Europe now needs to strategize independently, especially after recent US-Russia talks in Ryad, suggesting a potential alignment between the US and Russia.
European leaders need innovative thinking to protect Europe's interests and values, including rethinking institutional structures. A European security architecture cannot exist without the UK involved, which makes the European Union not the right venue to build a security union. Increased defence spending seems obvious, but it makes no sense to maintain 27 mini militaries. As often, the outsider needs to bring home hard truths: Ukrainian president Zelensky rightly pointed out that only an integrated European military can be an effective solution. Suggestions by legal academics to relaunch the defunct 1950s European Defence Community already look too timid in the face of the security challenges Europe faces.
Similarly, Europe must prepare for potential high tariffs on EU goods imported to the U.S. Deepening the single market is part of the answer, so best to take a second look at the Letta and Draghi reports. Doubling down on international trade with other partners than the U.S.—think Mercosur, South-East Asia, but also closer to home: Africa—is also key. Europe needs raw materials, which Canada or many African countries can provide. And it also needs (young) workers, which African countries have in abundance. There are opportunities for European leaders to explore, and now seems like the perfect time to do so, if extreme-right politics does not come in the way, that is.
This may be the biggest concern: European political leaders, especially but not only those of the centre-right, increasingly defend the self-defeating views espoused by extreme-right parties. Europeans are ageing. Labour shortages are everywhere. The Guardian reported recently that, according to Eurostat data, without immigration, Europe’s population would shrink by one-third by the end of the century, stranding at 295 million, from 447 million today. With immigration remaining at current levels, Europe’s population will be 6% smaller by 2100—falling to 419 million.
The solution seems obvious. And as sociologist Hein de Haas made clear in his book, it is already being practiced: despite harsh anti-migration rhetoric and an obsession with reducing asylum flows, European countries do facilitate economic migration, including from non-EU countries, but they refuse to defend the wisdom of such policies. This is not a viable, long-term strategy, however, as it gives oxygen to narratives that either the border is not under control, or that liberal elites are conspiring to replace the native population. Moreover, it allows for abuse and exploitation, as governments do not wish to be seen as standing up for migrant rights.
A more courageous approach would be for European political leaders to develop a positive counter-narrative, highlighting how migration brings dynamism to our ageing societies; how migrants are more likely to start new businesses; and how we need young people to keep the lights on in our hospitals and nursing homes, and in our factories and farms. Spain offers an interesting counter-example in this respect. It embraces migration, and has the highest economic growth of the continent. This arguably is not a coincidence, as media outlets as the Economist and The Guardian have been pointing out in recent months.
The second Trump administration promises to be an unmitigated disaster, for the US, its neighbourhood and the world as a whole. As Europeans, it may also present a chance to reimagine ourselves and address some of our structural problems.
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